@article{oai:kyutech.repo.nii.ac.jp:00006925,
 author = {Watanabe, Hiroaki and 渡邉, 浩明},
 journal = {梅光学院大学論集},
 month = {Jan},
 note = {This article seeks to provide a new approach to the classic problem of determining the function of the community in Qumran. It considers three hypotheses concerning the function of the community at Qumran, and attempts to assign a probability to each using a Bayes' theorem calculation in four steps: (1) Establish and list available data related to the hypotheses. (2) Numerically assess the data to establish data probabilities. (3) Establish prior probabilities. (4) Calculate posterior probabilities with Bayes' theorem. The results of this calculation indicate a 36% probability that Qumran was an Essene community; 21% probability that Qumran was a military post; and 43% probability that Qumran was a commercial post.},
 pages = {39--63},
 title = {Evaluating Competing Hypotheses with Bayes’ Theorem:  Qumran as a Case Study},
 volume = {46},
 year = {2013},
 yomi = {ワタナベ, ヒロアキ}
}