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The mixed trunsored model with applications to SARS
http://hdl.handle.net/10228/499
http://hdl.handle.net/10228/499e998f64f-c372-4555-b3b1-b7248c82f238
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
j.matcom.2006.06.031.pdf (313.9 kB)
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| Item type | 学術雑誌論文 = Journal Article(1) | |||||
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| 公開日 | 2007-12-11 | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
| 資源タイプ | journal article | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | The mixed trunsored model with applications to SARS | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 著者 |
廣瀬, 英雄
× 廣瀬, 英雄 |
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| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | The trunsored model, which is a new incomplete data model regarded as a unifiedmodel of the censored and truncated models in lifetime analysis, can not only estimatethe ratio of the fragile population to the mixed fragile and durable populations or thecured and fatal mixed populations, but also test a hypothesis that the ratio is equal to aprescribed value with ease.Since SARS showed a severe case fatality ratio, our concern is to know such a casefatality ratio as soon as possible after a similar outbreak begins. The epidemiologicaldeterminants of spread of SARS can be dealt with as the probabilistic growth curve models,and the parameter estimation procedure for the probabilistic growth curve models maysimilarly be treated as the lifetime analysis. Thus, we try to do the parameter estimationto the SARS cases for the infected cases, fatal cases, and cured cases here, as we usually doit in the lifetime analysis. Using the truncated data models to the infected and fatal caseswith some censoring time, we may estimate the total (or final) numbers of the patients anddeaths, and the case fatality ratio may be estimated by these two numbers. We may alsoestimate the case fatality ratio using the numbers of the patients and recoveries, but thisestimate differs from that using the numbers of the patients and deaths, especially whenthe censoring time is located at early stages.To circumvent this inconsistency, we propose a mixed trunsored model, an extension of the trunsored model, which can use the data of the patients, deaths, and recoveriessimultaneously. The estimate of the case fatality ratio and its confidence interval areeasily obtained in a numerical sense.This paper mainly treats the case in Hong Kong. The estimated epidemiologicaldeterminants of spread of SARS, fitted to the infected, fatal, and cured cases in HongKong, could be the logistic distribution function among the logistic, lognormal, gamma,and Weibull models. Using the proposed method, it would be appropriate that the SARScase fatality ratio is roughly estimated to be 17% in Hong Kong. Worldwide, it is roughlyestimated to be about 12-18%, if we consider the safety side without the Chinese case.Unlike the questionably small confidence intervals for the case fatality ratio using thetruncated models, the case fatality ratio in the proposed model provides a reasonableconfidence interval. | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 巻 74, 号 6, p. 443-453, 発行日 2007-04-30 |
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| 出版社 | ||||||
| 出版者 | Elsevier | |||||
| DOI | ||||||
| 関連タイプ | isVersionOf | |||||
| 識別子タイプ | DOI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2006.06.031 | |||||
| ISSN | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | 0378-4754 | |||||
| 著作権関連情報 | ||||||
| 権利情報 | Copyright © 2006 IMACS Published by Elsevier Ltd. | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Truncated data | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Grouped data | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Generalized logistic distribution | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Case fatality ratio | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Bootstrap | |||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||
| 出版タイプ | AM | |||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa | |||||
| 査読の有無 | ||||||
| 値 | yes | |||||
| 情報源 | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03784754 | |||||
| 関連名称 | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03784754 | |||||
